A new 'whole-life' pavement performance model (WLPPM) has been developed that is capable of making deterministic pavement damage predictions due to realistic traffic and environmental loading. The WLPPM is divided into three main areas: (i) dynamic vehicle simulation, (ii) pavement primary response (stresses, strains etc) model, and (iii) material damage (surface rutting and fatigue cracking) model.

The WLPPM is used to investigate the relationships between 'hot spots' (due to peak dynamic tyre forces), and 'weak spots' (due to initial pavement stiffness variations) and long-term flexible pavement damage. The effects of spatially repeatable patterns of loading on long-term flexible pavement performance are also investigated. A method is described for simulating vehicle fleets with varying degrees of 'spatial repeatability' of dynamic tyre forces using a small number of dynamic tyre force histories. Results indicate that thinner pavements are most sensitive to the level of spatial repeatability exhibited by the vehicle fleet. Pavement damage predictions made without assuming an appropriate level of spatial repeatability can be in error by 20-150%, the higher values being for thinner pavements that fail by fatigue damage.