A new 'whole-life' pavement performance model (WLPPM) has beendeveloped that is capable of making deterministic pavement damagepredictions due to realistic traffic and environmental loading.The WLPPM is divided into three main areas: (i) dynamic vehiclesimulation, (ii) pavement primary response (stresses, strainsetc) model, and (iii) material damage (surface rutting and fatiguecracking) model.

The WLPPM is used to investigate the relationships between'hot spots' (due to peak dynamic tyre forces), and 'weak spots'(due to initial pavement stiffness variations) and long-term flexiblepavement damage. The effects of spatially repeatable patternsof loading on long-term flexible pavement performance are alsoinvestigated. A method is described for simulating vehicle fleetswith varying degrees of 'spatial repeatability' of dynamic tyreforces using a small number of dynamic tyre force histories. Resultsindicate that thinner pavements are most sensitive to the levelof spatial repeatability exhibited by the vehicle fleet. Pavementdamage predictions made without assuming an appropriate levelof spatial repeatability can be in error by 20-150%, the highervalues being for thinner pavements that fail by fatigue damage.